The year 2022 is exactly thirteen days away but many Nigerians would wish it starts now. No thanks to the insecurity, fire disasters, deaths, political squabbles, and other socio-economic crises that trailed 2021....CONTINUE READING
Some of the issues that hallmarked 2021 would be carried over to 2022.
Next year is the eve of the 2023 general elections. A salad of political activities this year may shape events that will dovetail to the 2023 presidential election on February 18, 2023.
The issues
Some of the issues include war against insecurity, removal of fuel subsidy, fear of worsening economic downturn, war against the raging COVID-19 pandemic, and instability in the nation’s universities on account of lecturers’ strike.
The trial of the Leader of the Indigenous People of Biafra, IPoB, Mazi Nnamdi Kanu; agitation for zoning of the presidency between North and South and among the geo-political zones; quest for a new electoral law; battle for the soul of the ruling All Progressives Congress, APC; Ekiti and Osun governorship polls; presidential primaries of the APC, main opposition Peoples Democratic Party, PDP; alignment and realignment of political forces among others will also shape 2022.
Faces to watch
Faces to watch out for in 2022 include President Muhammadu Buhari, whose body language and influence will shape how the battle for the 2023 presidential poll would be waged. He is also the face of the war against insecurity and economic downturn
There are also Senate President, Ahmad Lawan and House of Representatives Speaker Femi Gbajabiamila, who are expected to lead the crusade for a new electoral law that will boost the conduct of credible elections.
At the time of writing this report, President Buhari was yet to assent the Electoral Act Amendment Bill, which provided for electronic transmission of election results and direct primaries for the election of candidates.
There will also be those of 2023 presidential contenders and pretenders, who must declare their ambitions in 2022.
Among this crowd are former Lagos State Governor and APC National Leader, Senator Bola Ahmed Tinubu; Vice President Yemi Osinbajo; former Senate President Anyim Pius Anyim; Mr. Moses Ayom; former Senate President Bukola Saraki; and former Vice President Atiku Abubakar.
Others include former Governor of Anambra State, Mr. Peter Obi; Governor Dave Umahi of Ebonyi State; Governor Aminu Tambuwal, Professor Kingsley Moghalu; Mr. Sam Ohuabunwa.
How former Central Bank of Nigeria, CBN, Governor, Professor Chukwuma Soludo, who will be sworn-in as Anambra State governor on March 17, will supervise the affairs of the state, will also be a matter of interest.
Insecurity
Arguably, 2021 is one of the worst years for Nigeria in terms of insecurity.. In 12 months to September 2021, data from the Nextier SPD Violent Conflict Database showed that no fewer than 3,787 died in 890 incidents across the country. Region-specific and cross-cutting violent conflicts threaten lives and livelihoods, stretching security institutions beyond their capacity. Government and residents have borne the economic implications.
Nigeria’s Inspector-General of Police, Mr. Usman Baba, said the year 2021 was challenging for the Police Force, citing threats posed by bandits, separatist groups, kidnappers, and other organised criminal organisations.
Virtually all parts of the country are facing one form of blood-guzzling insecurity glitch or the other. They range from banditry, killings and kidnapping for ransom in the North-West and North-Central; raging Boko Haram insurgency in the North-East; secessionist struggles in the South-East and parts of South-South and South-West zones. There are also ransom kidnappings, unidentified gunmen attacks and organised crime waves across the board.
Nigerians are responding to security threats by creating self-defence militias groups, secessionist calls and protests against insecurity. There are #NorthIsBleeding protests in some parts of Northern Nigeria, the Eastern Security Network, ESN, the brainchild of the IPoB is also operating in the South-East in addition to the murderous activities of unknown gunmen that had in recent weeks targeted monarchs and security agents.
These security issues will be carried forward to 2022, requiring the co-operation of all stakeholders to be addressed.
ASUU strike
One of the first challenges to be confronted in 2022 is restoring peace to Nigeria’s ivory towers where another strike of the Academic Staff Union of Universities, ASUU, is looming because of the failure of the Federal Government to meet the agreements it reached with the union.
The ASUU has urged the Federal Government not to drag the educational sector to dark days of strikes by urgently implementing the December 23, 2020, Memorandum of Action (MoA) reached between both parties.
IPOB secessionist agitation, trial of Nnamdi Kanu
The resumed trial of IPOB Leader, Nnamdi Kanu, is one of the issues that will kick-start 2022.
At his last court appearance on October 21, Kanu pleaded not guilty to seven charges that included “terrorism”, treason and perpetuating falsehoods against President Muhammadu Buhari that the FG preferred against him. Trial Judge, Justice Binta Nyako, adjourned resumption of the trial to January 19 and 20, next year after Kanu’s lead lawyer walked out in protest against the refusal by security agents to allow access to the courtroom to other members of the legal defence team.
A top echelon of Igbo leaders led by First Republic Aviation Minister, Chief Mbazulike Amechi, recently visited President Buhari and pleaded Buhari for a political solution and unconditional release of Kanu, which they said would douse raging tension and violence in the South-East.
Nnamdi Kanu, IPOB leader
However, some Northern leaders and groups opposed the move. Will Buhari take the advice of Igbo elders or that of Northern groups? Or will he allow the trial to run its course? These are questions that will be answered next year.
Fuel subsidy controversy
The plan by the Federal Government to remove subsidies on petroleum products next February, which will make Nigerians pay about N340 per litre of petrol, is expected to dominate socio-economic activities in Nigeria, next year. A government report showed that the subsidy gulped N1.03tn in the first 10 months of 2021 and that the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited deducted N199bn for the payment of subsidy in December this year.
The N340 per litre of petrol is more than 100 percent rise from the current pump price of N162 per litre. To cushion the effect of this steep increase in price the government plans to pay N5, 000 to each of 40 million “poorest of the poor” Nigerians. This will come to N2.4 trillion, which is higher than N1.4 trillion that would have been paid as subsidy. The fuel subsidy controversy kicked up humongous dust in the polity, this year, and is expected to raise more dust in 2022.
COVID-19 pandemic
The COVID-19 pandemic, which has morphed into many variants, is not about to go away. The war will continue, next year especially as the Omicron variant wreaks havoc across the globe, eliciting travel bans and diplomatic rows among countries. The question of COVID-19 vaccine Mandate is expected to be on the front burner As of press time the number of Coronavirus cases across the world was over 280 million with 5.4 million deaths and 250 million recoveries
Political scene
On the political scene, the battle for the soul of the ruling APC will begin very early in the year. Competing camps will battle to gain control through a push for the conduct of a national convention to elect members of the National Executive Committee, NEC, in February. Some youth groups in the party backed by some top stakeholders are bent on taking over the APC from the Yobe State Governor, Mai Mala Buni-led CECPC, which enjoys the support of APC governors.
Ekiti and Osun state governorship elections will be two of the major political activities of 2022. Already hordes of aspirants have bought nomination forms and are locked in a series of politicking to realise their ambitions. Both states have remained battlegrounds for the APC and PDP. The ruling APC narrowly won Osun State in the last election.
According to the INEC’s chairman, Mahmood Yakubu, , the commission has slated June 18, 2022, for Ekiti while the Osun State Governorship election will be held on July 16, 2022.
After the mid-year Ekiti and Osun governorship polls, presidential primaries of the APC, PDP and other parties will take place.
Preparations, horse-trading, alignment and re-alignment of politicians and political forces ahead of the presidential primaries are expected to keep the political atmosphere turbo-charged in 2022.