Kamala Harris is about to win the keys to the White House, believes a historian who has successfully predicted nine out of the last 10 elections in the US, Sky News reports.
Polls have suggested a neck-and-neck race between Republican nominee Donald Trump and his Democratic opponent.
But Prof Allan Lichtman’s system, called “The Keys to the White House”, involves disregarding the polls entirely.
Instead, he uses a checklist of 13 metrics to find who will be the winner.
“Why am I sure that Harris is going to win? Because it’s only close on the polls, and my system ignores the polls,” Lichtman told CNN.
The professor, who correctly predicted Trump’s win against Hillary Clinton in 2016, described polls as “snapshots” and said: “People don’t respond to pollsters, they lie, they change their minds, and they have to guess who the likely voters are.”
Lichtman’s system, which he developed in the early 1980s with the Russian geophysicist Vladimir Keilis-Borok, uses a list of 13 true-false statements based on the incumbent president, their party, and the political landscape.
If six or more of the statements are false, then the challenger — in this case, Trump — is predicted to win.
As detailed below, his system currently concludes that eight of the 13 keys are in Ms Harris’s favour – while three favour her Republican rival.
According to Lichtman’s analysis, the following is the outcome of this election:
“Party Mandate: After the midterm elections, the incumbent party holds more seats in the US House of Representatives than it did after the previous midterm elections. FALSE
Contest: There is no serious contest for the incumbent party nomination. TRUE
Incumbency: The incumbent-party candidate is the sitting president. FALSE
Third party: There is no significant third-party or independent campaign. TRUE
Short-term economy: The economy is not in recession during the election campaign. TRUE
Long-term economy: Real per-capita economic growth during the term equals or exceeds mean growth during the previous two terms. TRUE
Policy change: The incumbent administration effects major changes in national policy. TRUE
Social unrest: There is no sustained social unrest during the term. TRUE
Scandal: The incumbent administration is untainted by major scandal. TRUE
Incumbent charisma: The incumbent-party candidate is charismatic or a national hero. FALSE
Challenger charisma: The challenging-party candidate is not charismatic or a national hero. TRUE
Foreign/military failure: The incumbent administration suffers no major failure in foreign or military affairs. LEANS FALSE
Foreign/military success: The incumbent administration achieves a major success in foreign or military affairs. LEANS TRUE”
This means that, with eight of the 13 questions going in her favour compared to the three for Trump, Harris is likely to win the White House.
Since the turn of the century, Lichtman has only been wrong once – in 2000, when there were five false keys against the incumbent Democrats and he predicted Democratic candidate and vice president Al Gore would win.
Gore won the popular vote, but Republican nominee George W Bush was declared the winner of the Electoral College by the Supreme Court 36 days after election day, following a lengthy legal battle over the vote count in Florida.